Extended time weather forecasts contributes to agricultural productivity estimates

Weather conditions in critical periods of the vegetative crop development influence crop productivity, thus being a basic parameter for crop forecast. Reliable extended period weather forecasts may contribute to improve the estimation of agricultural productivity. The production of soybean plays an important role in the Brazilian economy, because this country is ranked among the largest producers of soybeans in the world. This culture can be significantly affected by water conditions, depending on the intensity of water deficit. This work explores the role of extended period weather forecasts for estimating soybean productivity in the southern part of Brazil, Passo Fundo, and Londrina (State of Rio Grande do Sul and Parana, respectively) in the 2005/2006 harvest. The goal was to investigate the possible contribution of precipitation forecasts as a substitute for the use of climatological data on crop forecasts. The results suggest that the use of meteorological forecasts generate more reliable productivity estimates during the growth period than those generated only through climatological information.

Climatological features of cutoff low systems in the Southern Hemisphere

Cutoff lows (COLs) pressure systems climatology for the Southern Hemisphere (SH), between 10 degrees S and 50 degrees S, using the National Center for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) and the ERA-40 European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalyses are analyzed for the period 1979-1999. COLs were identified at three pressure levels (200, 300, and 500 hPa) using an objective method that considers the main physical characteristics of the conceptual model of COLs. Independently of the pressure level analyzed, the climatology from the ERA-40 reanalysis has more COLs systems than the NCEP-NCAR. However, both reanalyses present a large frequency of COLs at 300 hPa, followed by 500 and 200 hPa. The seasonality of COLs differs at each pressure level, but it is similar between the reanalyses. COLs are more frequent during summer, autumn, and winter at 200, 300, and 500 hPa, respectively. At these levels, they tend to occur around the continents, preferentially from southeastern Australia to New Zealand, the south of South America, and the south of Africa. To study the COLs at 200 and 300 hPa from a regional perspective, the SH was divided in three regions: Australia-New Zealand (60 E-130 W), South America (130 degrees W-20 degrees W), and southern Africa (20 degrees W-60 degrees E). The common COLs features in these sectors for both reanalyses are a short lifetime (similar to 80.0% and similar to 70.0% of COLs at 200 and 300 hPa, respectively, persisting for up to 3 days), mobility (similar to 70.0% and similar to 50% of COLs at 200 and 300 hPa, respectively, traveling distances of up to 1200 km), and an eastward propagation.

Regional representativity of AERONET observation sites during the biomass burning season in South America determined by correlation studies with MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth

This paper presents an analysis of ground-based Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) observations by the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) in South America from 2001 to 2007 in comparison with the satellite AOD product of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), aboard TERRA and AQUA satellites. Data of 12 observation sites were used with primary interest in AERONET sites located in or downwind of areas with high biomass burning activity and with measurements available for the full time range. Fires cause the predominant carbonaceous aerosol emission signal during the dry season in South America and are therefore a special focus of this study. Interannual and seasonal behavior of the observed AOD at different sites were investigated, showing clear differences between purely fire and urban influenced sites. An intercomparison of AERONET and MODIS AOD annual correlations revealed that neither an interannual long-term trend may be observed nor that correlations differ significantly owing to different overpass times of TERRA and AQUA. Individual anisotropic representativity areas for each AERONET site were derived by correlating daily AOD of each site for all years with available individual MODIS AOD pixels gridded to 1 degrees x 1 degrees. Results showed that for many sites a good AOD correlation (R(2) > 0.5) persists for large, often strongly anisotropic, areas. The climatological areas of common regional aerosol regimes often extend over several hundreds of kilometers, sometimes far across national boundaries. As a practical application, these strongly inhomogeneous and anisotropic areas of influence are being implemented in the tropospheric aerosol data assimilation system of the Coupled Chemistry-Aerosol-Tracer Transport Model coupled to the Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CCATT-BRAMS) at the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE). This new information promises an improved exploitation of local site sampling and, thus, chemical weather forecast.